Hurricane Wilma - Cozumel's up first

Just took at look at the forecasts on NHC...looks like Wilma has shifted
a bit further west and is going to swipe the Yucatan ... northern end of
Cozumel before hooking fast East to go after Florida.


Here's an excerpt from this AM's numbers:


AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST

This is 195 miles SE of Cozumel.



CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI
B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT


LOCATION A B C D E

20.0N 86.5W 42 X X X 42

(best guess of storm's center location in 24 hours (A)

MMCZ 205N 869W 31 X 1 X 32


MMCZ is Cozumel's airport. Represents a 31% chance of Wilma being
within 65 miles by 1AM Friday, although other NHC analysis shows a 58%
probability of hurricane force (64knot) winds, 75% for 50knot & 98% for
34knot (Tropical Storm) across the full five day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.3N 85.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 85.8W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 145 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 86.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 37.1N 70.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL




Source:

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! Glad I bought that
trip insurance this time! CZM will be fine, but the water will suck!

"Doug" <doug.masters@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1129812832.020302.189350@o13g2000cwo.googlegr oups.com...
> SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! Glad I bought that
> trip insurance this time! CZM will be fine, but the water will suck!

Like I said, say hi to Wilma for me...

"Doug" wrote


> SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! Glad I bought that
> trip insurance this time! CZM will be fine, but the water will suck!

As of right now, it looks like Coz is going to hammered pretty hard. The
forecasts I just looked at seem to indicate that storm, presently a category
4 with a chance of returning to a category 5 before it hits the peninsula,
will pass pretty much directly over the island. It's not going to be
pretty.

I suppose it's too much to hope that the hurricane will catch all the cruise
ships in port, destroying both them and the docs built for them.

Lee

"Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:%OQ5f.38988$Lp.27499@bignews5.bellsouth.net.. .
>
> I suppose it's too much to hope that the hurricane will catch all the
cruise
> ships in port, destroying both them and the docs built for them.

The ships are already gone.

The airport is closed too.

>> SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! SHIT!!! Glad I bought that
>> trip insurance this time! CZM will be fine, but the water will suck!

> Like I said, say hi to Wilma for me...

You were right, I was wrong. Not saying "Hi" to anyone for you!

Just waiting for FunJet to cancel the trip so I get a 100% refund,
which will probably happen later today or tomorrow. As someone else
mentioned, CZM "evacuated" & airport closed. Cancun soon to be
shutdown.

"Doug" wrote

>> Like I said, say hi to Wilma for me...

> You were right, I was wrong. Not saying "Hi" to anyone for you!

> Just waiting for FunJet to cancel the trip so I get a 100% refund,
> which will probably happen later today or tomorrow. As someone else
> mentioned, CZM "evacuated" & airport closed. Cancun soon to be
> shutdown.

Sorry about your trip. I wish I could recommend an alternative, but pretty
much everyplace I dive is either feeling the effects right now, or expecting
to before long.

Lee

"Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:KIT5f.39525$Lp.8072@bignews5.bellsouth.net...
>
> "chilly" <slarson@shaw.canada> wrote in message
> news:AzR5f.239112$oW2.173122@pd7tw1no...
>>
>> "Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
>> news:%OQ5f.38988$Lp.27499@bignews5.bellsouth.net.. .
>>>
>>> I suppose it's too much to hope that the hurricane will catch all the
>> cruise
>>> ships in port, destroying both them and the docs built for them.
>>
>> The ships are already gone.
>>
>> The airport is closed too.
>
> They're not gone the way I want them gone.

"Target"

"Bearing?"

"Mark".

"Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:KIT5f.39525$Lp.8072@bignews5.bellsouth.net...
>
> "chilly" <slarson@shaw.canada> wrote in message
> news:AzR5f.239112$oW2.173122@pd7tw1no...
> >
> > "Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
> > news:%OQ5f.38988$Lp.27499@bignews5.bellsouth.net.. .
> >>
> >> I suppose it's too much to hope that the hurricane will catch all the
> > cruise
> >> ships in port, destroying both them and the docs built for them.
> >
> > The ships are already gone.
> >
> > The airport is closed too.
>
> They're not gone the way I want them gone.

I hear that!

"Randy Neifer" wrote in message
news:1c143$4359cc9c$45139425$15578@infostations.co m...
> Of course the east side was completely wiped out, and there were trees
down
> everywhere.

Cozumel? Trees? Shrubs would be more like it...