An example of why low PADI standards can be bad

"dechucka" wrote

> How can PADI put restrictions on boat operators?

The majority of the boats are operated by shops affiliated with a training
agency. You want to advertise yourself as a PADI 5 start facility, you play
by PADI's rules.

Lee

"dechucka" <dechucka@vomithotmail.com.au> wrote in message
news:44e4f7be$0$347$5a62ac22@per-qv1-newsreader-01.iinet.net.au...
>
> "Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
> news:ev6Fg.61404$vj1.58016@bignews5.bellsouth.net. ..
>> "dechucka" wrote
>>
>>> How can PADI put restrictions on boat operators?
>>
>> The majority of the boats are operated by shops affiliated with a
>> training agency. You want to advertise yourself as a PADI 5 start
>> facility, you play by PADI's rules.
>
> Must be different over here or I just dive from independent boats

Having said that especially diving in Q'land has become a lot more strict
since the 2 seppos ( sorry citizens of the USA ) were lost. You actually
sign yourself back onto the boat but that is a gov regulation, I assume
under Health and Safety laws

Thus spake "Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> :

>"dechucka" wrote
>
>> How can PADI put restrictions on boat operators?
>
>The majority of the boats are operated by shops affiliated with a training
>agency. You want to advertise yourself as a PADI 5 start facility, you play
>by PADI's rules.
>
>Lee
>

Insurance. PADI (actually V&B, but what the heck) will insure almost
anything if you're willing to follow their rules. Hell, they'll even
insure me.
--
dillon

How much power does it take to run a server farm?
A googlewatt.

dechucka wrote

> Having said that especially diving in Q'land has become a lot more strict
> since the 2 seppos ( sorry citizens of the USA ) were lost. You actually
> sign yourself back onto the boat but that is a gov regulation, I assume
> under Health and Safety laws

I read the proposed Q'land diving rules after the two incidents in one year,
both by the same operator as I recall. They were pretty strict. I was not
pleased to see that kind of government controls imposed on the sport
anywhere and certainly not in such a popular dive destination. I've not
seen the rules actually adopted. Are they available on line somewhere that
does not require me to pay for them?

Lee

"-hh" <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> wrote in message
news:1155814854.220887.65430@i3g2000cwc.googlegrou ps.com...
> Popeye wrote:

>> > Just because you don't see any reports on them from 1,000 miles and a
>> > country away, doesn't change the ground truth. Doesn't matter if we're
>> > talking the Caribbean or the Sandbox.
>>
>> The national numbers are what they are.
>>
>> In the absence of a scrap of evidence, one would have to assume that
>> the
>> Caymans falls into line with them.
>
> No disagreement. The statistics for the non-fatal accidents that
> result in DCS Chamber rides is generally reported at around 1 in 10K
> dives.

Where does this number come from?

Who has quantified the number of dives done anywhere?

> In the Sister Islands, there's reportedly 196 hotel rooms + 190 other
> guest rooms available...
>
> As per a link from:
> <http://www.caymanislands.ky/statistics/occupancy_reports.asp>
>
> Being conservative, I'm only going to count only the traditional resort
> tourist hotels (196). The dive ops do get customers from the house
> rentals, etc, but for the most part, its under 5%.
>
>
> For hotel occupancy rates (same source as above, different link), its
> not broken out for the Sisters. For last year, it says they averaged
> (annualized) a 55.8% occupancy rate. The 10-year annual minimum for
> all of the islands combined for hotels only is just 50.6% (for others,
> the 10 year low was 37.7%). I'll use the latter and that for each
> non-diver, there's a triple or quad occupancy, so I'll round down to
> just double occupancy on average. Similarly, because of down days
> before flying home, etc, I'm going to assume that afternoon dives and
> hardcore divers will offset this to the point where we can KISS assume
> that everyone does an average of only 2 dives per day.

What a bunch of lightweights (and I edited that from a different word).

My friend that goes to Bonaire dives 5-6 times a day.

I don't disagree, however, I've been astounded to meet Rec.scubans that go
on a "dive vacation" and do two dives a day so they can try out restaurants
and go shopping and shit.

Stunning.

I'll still consider it conservative.

> Thus:
>
> 196 rooms @ .506 occupancy @ 2 each = 198 divers --> 396 dives/day -->
> 11,880 dives per 30 day month.
>
> 11,880 / 10K = 1.2 incidences expected per month.

This hardly supports your premise for the need of a second chamber.

> FWIW, I've cross-checked this vs the number of local op diveboats,
> their capacity, and typically the rates/capacities that I've seen them
> run - - this is within my expected range:
>
>
> 12 (Caymaniac) @ McCoys
> 20 Newton (Yellow Rose III) @ Pirate's Point
> 15 (Coral Star) @ Southern Cross Club
> 15 Seahawk (Lucky Star) @ Southern Cross Club
> 20 Newton (Holiday Diver?) @ Neptune's Berth
> 15 Newton (SeaEsta) @ Paradise Villas/Conch Club
>
> 20 Newton (Island Sister) @ LCBR
> 20 Newton (Cayman Sister) @ LCBR
> 20 Newton (Reef Fanta Seas) @ LCBR
>
> 20 Newton (Big Sister) @ BRBR
> 20 Newton (Little Sister) @ BRBR
> 20 Newton (Twin Sister) @ BRBR
>
> 20 Newton (Brac Fever II) @ Divi
> 18 PH (Ocean Fever) @ Divi
> 18 PH (Island Fever II) @ Divi
> 14 putt-putt (Ocean Fever) @ Divi
> 18 (seasonal rental) @ Divi
> 18 (seasonal rental) @ Divi
>
> ---------------------
> 287 - 323 capacity
>
>
> 20 Nekton Liveaboard
> 20 Aggressor Liveaboard
>
> --------------------
> 363 total capacity
>
>
> For 198 divers, this would be a "diveboat occupancy" rate of
> 69%-61%-55%, depending on how you want to count. There's also two
> Pro42's not listed that used to be part of the Reef Divers fleet (one
> at LCBR and one at BRBR); I'm not sure if they're still around anymore
> or not. If included, these would add another 30-36 to capacity, which
> would drop this average down to 50%. However, considering how crappy
> they performed in bluewater, I believe that they were written off/sold
> circa Hurricane Ivan/2004. I've not included the old Brac Aquatics
> Outrunner, Reef Runner or Little Cayman Diver, as they're all long
> since gone, nor have I included a private fishing boat that is known to
> occasionally take out divers, particularly since they lack the licence
> to do this.
>
>
> AFAIC, the math is consistant to the 1x/month rate I reported. Feel
> free to poke holes in it.

I'm not sure exactly what you just said, but it dazzled me.

I know to trust your math.

My point would be, who says 1/10,000?

My last numbers, from 2001 DEMA, says 2.7 million -active- divers, 12
dives a year or more.

5000 annual incidences of DCS per DAN, relatively steady over the years.

It's also my contention that this number is inflated.

If chamber rides were a thousand bucks a piece instead of all you want for
$36 a year, I'd bet there'd be a significant decrease in reported incidents.

Also, as to your above, with a conservative estimate of around 140,000
dives a year, 1 incident per month sounds trivial, especially when you
can't -begin- to quantify cause.

Was it really DCS, or indigestion?

Was it caused by deficient OW training, or hang over?

Did the guy have 25 dives?

3k?

200 dives over ten years?

You certainly seem to be reading a lot into this.

On Fri, 18 Aug 2006 05:25:34 -0700, "Popeye"
<popeye@finalprotectivefire.com> wrote:
> My friend that goes to Bonaire dives 5-6 times a day.

Obviously they are not getting sufficiently narced on each dive...
<grin>

Popeye wrote:
> "-hh" wrote:
> > ... The statistics for the non-fatal accidents that
> > result in DCS Chamber rides is generally reported at around 1 in 10K
> > dives.
>
> Where does this number come from?

I don't recall offhand, but it is a number that has been used on many
occasions here. IIRC, it has been published in DAN's "Alert Diver" and
I'm sure that Mike Grey can expound on it further.

> Who has quantified the number of dives done anywhere?

If nothing else, it is quite easy on a small island to count diveboats
and how many tanks they can carry, then look at their schedule and
calendar...FWIW, I've been on most of the boats on that list.


> > ... where we can KISS assume
> > that everyone does an average of only 2 dives per day.
>
> What a bunch of lightweights (and I edited that from a different word).
>
> My friend that goes to Bonaire dives 5-6 times a day.
>
> I don't disagree, however ...

I intended to be a non-disputably conservative value. If you want to
assume 10% more dives, then the expected number of accidents per month
will go up by 10%.


> > 11,880 / 10K = 1.2 incidences expected per month.
>
> This hardly supports your premise for the need of a second chamber.

The need for the second chamber is to assure 24/7 availability of
providing appropriate medical service, and it was the loss of 24/7
capability to fly a patient over to Grand Cayman in the context that
the applicable medical need was locally deemed to be "frequent enough"
to merit buying a chamber just for the Brac & LC.

Do keep in mind that the use of Island Air as a custom charter also
kept an injured diver "away from the eyes" of traveling tourists and
their perceptions on dive safety.


> I know to trust your math.
>
> My point would be, who says 1/10,000?
>
> My last numbers, from 2001 DEMA, says 2.7 million -active- divers, 12
> dives a year or more.
>
> 5000 annual incidences of DCS per DAN, relatively steady over the years.

DEMA's 2.7 million active, times their 12 dives/year each = 32.4
million dives per year. Divided by DAN's 5,000 chamber rides per year:
results in 1 chamber ride per 6,480 dives as per these statistics.

Which would yield an expected value of 1.8 accidents per month on the
Sister Islands. Could be possible that my source was ill-informed, or
was under-reporting to try to play down the risk. Or it could be that
its right, but the Sister Islandss get a slightly better quality of
diver that tends to be better than average at avoiding things that
cause DCS.


> It's also my contention that this number is inflated.

Well, 1:6480 is more frequent (a "higher risk") than the 1:10K value I
used.


> If chamber rides were a thousand bucks a piece instead of all you want for
> $36 a year, I'd bet there'd be a significant decrease in reported incidents.

I don't doubt that there's probably some false positives in the
reporting. However, there's also some non-reported cases too. I know
one individual (initials DM) who bent themself on a fast ascent
bringing up a customer, and did an immediate IWR (left solo at the
mooring while the boat took the victim in), then proceeded to stay dry
for 6 months before all symptoms finally cleared. Why would they do
this? Because this was back in the "bad old days" of the 1990's, where
a Dive Pro wouldn't be able to get a job offer in the Industry if they
were ever officially diagnosed / treated for DCS.


> Also, as to your above, with a conservative estimate of around 140,000
> dives a year, 1 incident per month sounds trivial, especially when you
> can't -begin- to quantify cause.

We invariably consider such risks to be trivial ... until it happens to
us.


> Was it really DCS, or indigestion?
>
> Was it caused by deficient OW training, or hang over?
>
> Did the guy have 25 dives?
>
> 3k?
>
> 200 dives over ten years?

IMO, it really doesn't matter: the population of divers is going to be
a heterogeneous blend of all types, and this has all already been
counted into the 5000 annual incidences of DCS per DAN: they're simply
reporting the "all causes" gross count, and not getting hung up over if
the DCS was caused by a hangovers, deserved, stupidity, insufficient
traning, undeserved, etc.



> You certainly seem to be reading a lot into this.

Even though we consider it to be "very safe", we all know that diving
carries some level of risk. The question I have is: why are we be so
surprised when "The Statics of Large Numbers" produces the results that
it says will invariably happen?

It doesn't matter if we have a 1 in 10K risk or a 1 in 20K risk or
whatever: with 30+ million dives per year where that risk is applied,
the math is brutally straightforward as to how many DCS cases we can
consequently then expect. My question is: why do we always then act so
surprised when the *statistically expected* then actually happens?
Afterall, we're rarely shocked to see a Stop sign after we pass a "Stop
Ahead" sign!


-hh

Thus spake "Popeye" <popeye@finalprotectivefire.com> :

>
>"-hh" <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com> wrote in message
>news:1155814854.220887.65430@i3g2000cwc.googlegro ups.com...
>> Popeye wrote:
>
>>> > Just because you don't see any reports on them from 1,000 miles and a
>>> > country away, doesn't change the ground truth. Doesn't matter if we're
>>> > talking the Caribbean or the Sandbox.
>>>
>>> The national numbers are what they are.
>>>
>>> In the absence of a scrap of evidence, one would have to assume that
>>> the
>>> Caymans falls into line with them.
>>
>> No disagreement. The statistics for the non-fatal accidents that
>> result in DCS Chamber rides is generally reported at around 1 in 10K
>> dives.
>
> Where does this number come from?

If you trust DAN, they have a pretty good annual stats book. One of
these days I'm going to buy one.

>
> Who has quantified the number of dives done anywhere?

I have. 1,692,418.

Just don't know the units.

>
>> In the Sister Islands, there's reportedly 196 hotel rooms + 190 other
>> guest rooms available...
>>
>> As per a link from:
>> <http://www.caymanislands.ky/statistics/occupancy_reports.asp>
>>
>> Being conservative, I'm only going to count only the traditional resort
>> tourist hotels (196). The dive ops do get customers from the house
>> rentals, etc, but for the most part, its under 5%.
>>
>>
>> For hotel occupancy rates (same source as above, different link), its
>> not broken out for the Sisters. For last year, it says they averaged
>> (annualized) a 55.8% occupancy rate. The 10-year annual minimum for
>> all of the islands combined for hotels only is just 50.6% (for others,
>> the 10 year low was 37.7%). I'll use the latter and that for each
>> non-diver, there's a triple or quad occupancy, so I'll round down to
>> just double occupancy on average. Similarly, because of down days
>> before flying home, etc, I'm going to assume that afternoon dives and
>> hardcore divers will offset this to the point where we can KISS assume
>> that everyone does an average of only 2 dives per day.
>
> What a bunch of lightweights (and I edited that from a different word).
>
> My friend that goes to Bonaire dives 5-6 times a day.
>
> I don't disagree, however, I've been astounded to meet Rec.scubans that go
>on a "dive vacation" and do two dives a day so they can try out restaurants
>and go shopping and shit.
>
> Stunning.
>
> I'll still consider it conservative.
>
>> Thus:
>>
>> 196 rooms @ .506 occupancy @ 2 each = 198 divers --> 396 dives/day -->
>> 11,880 dives per 30 day month.
>>
>> 11,880 / 10K = 1.2 incidences expected per month.
>
> This hardly supports your premise for the need of a second chamber.
>
>> FWIW, I've cross-checked this vs the number of local op diveboats,
>> their capacity, and typically the rates/capacities that I've seen them
>> run - - this is within my expected range:
>>
>>
>> 12 (Caymaniac) @ McCoys
>> 20 Newton (Yellow Rose III) @ Pirate's Point
>> 15 (Coral Star) @ Southern Cross Club
>> 15 Seahawk (Lucky Star) @ Southern Cross Club
>> 20 Newton (Holiday Diver?) @ Neptune's Berth
>> 15 Newton (SeaEsta) @ Paradise Villas/Conch Club
>>
>> 20 Newton (Island Sister) @ LCBR
>> 20 Newton (Cayman Sister) @ LCBR
>> 20 Newton (Reef Fanta Seas) @ LCBR
>>
>> 20 Newton (Big Sister) @ BRBR
>> 20 Newton (Little Sister) @ BRBR
>> 20 Newton (Twin Sister) @ BRBR
>>
>> 20 Newton (Brac Fever II) @ Divi
>> 18 PH (Ocean Fever) @ Divi
>> 18 PH (Island Fever II) @ Divi
>> 14 putt-putt (Ocean Fever) @ Divi
>> 18 (seasonal rental) @ Divi
>> 18 (seasonal rental) @ Divi
>>
>> ---------------------
>> 287 - 323 capacity
>>
>>
>> 20 Nekton Liveaboard
>> 20 Aggressor Liveaboard
>>
>> --------------------
>> 363 total capacity
>>
>>
>> For 198 divers, this would be a "diveboat occupancy" rate of
>> 69%-61%-55%, depending on how you want to count. There's also two
>> Pro42's not listed that used to be part of the Reef Divers fleet (one
>> at LCBR and one at BRBR); I'm not sure if they're still around anymore
>> or not. If included, these would add another 30-36 to capacity, which
>> would drop this average down to 50%. However, considering how crappy
>> they performed in bluewater, I believe that they were written off/sold
>> circa Hurricane Ivan/2004. I've not included the old Brac Aquatics
>> Outrunner, Reef Runner or Little Cayman Diver, as they're all long
>> since gone, nor have I included a private fishing boat that is known to
>> occasionally take out divers, particularly since they lack the licence
>> to do this.
>>
>>
>> AFAIC, the math is consistant to the 1x/month rate I reported. Feel
>> free to poke holes in it.
>
> I'm not sure exactly what you just said, but it dazzled me.
>
> I know to trust your math.
>
> My point would be, who says 1/10,000?
>
> My last numbers, from 2001 DEMA, says 2.7 million -active- divers, 12
>dives a year or more.
>
> 5000 annual incidences of DCS per DAN, relatively steady over the years.
>
> It's also my contention that this number is inflated.
>
> If chamber rides were a thousand bucks a piece instead of all you want for
>$36 a year, I'd bet there'd be a significant decrease in reported incidents.
>
> Also, as to your above, with a conservative estimate of around 140,000
>dives a year, 1 incident per month sounds trivial, especially when you
>can't -begin- to quantify cause.
>
> Was it really DCS, or indigestion?
>
> Was it caused by deficient OW training, or hang over?
>
> Did the guy have 25 dives?
>
> 3k?
>
> 200 dives over ten years?
>
> You certainly seem to be reading a lot into this.
>
--
dillon

How much power does it take to run a server farm?
A googlewatt.

Popeye wrote

>> 196 rooms @ .506 occupancy @ 2 each = 198 divers --> 396 dives/day -->
>> 11,880 dives per 30 day month.
>> 11,880 / 10K = 1.2 incidences expected per month.

> This hardly supports your premise for the need of a second chamber.

Depends on the chamber and other things it is used for. If it's a one
person chamber, two would seem to be a minimum since there's a fair chance
that both members of a buddy team will need one at the same time.

> If chamber rides were a thousand bucks a piece instead of all you want
> for $36 a year, I'd bet there'd be a significant decrease in reported
> incidents.

Probably so, but let's not forget that denial is common relative to DCS
issues. It is, in fact, the reason many fail to get treatment and end up
with permanent damage.

> Was it really DCS, or indigestion?

I've had both. There's no similarity at all.

> Was it caused by deficient OW training, or hang over?

There's a difference? Were you taught that alcohol made DCS more likely?

Lee

"Lee Bell" <pleebell2@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:0ZqFg.63079$vj1.10535@bignews5.bellsouth.net. ..
> Popeye wrote
>
>>> 196 rooms @ .506 occupancy @ 2 each = 198 divers --> 396 dives/day -->
>>> 11,880 dives per 30 day month.
>>> 11,880 / 10K = 1.2 incidences expected per month.
>
>> This hardly supports your premise for the need of a second chamber.
>
> Depends on the chamber and other things it is used for. If it's a one
> person chamber, two would seem to be a minimum since there's a fair chance
> that both members of a buddy team will need one at the same time.

I stand by the statement.

Nothing so far has shown any -increased- incidence of DSC, particularly
due to any general deficiency in OW training.

Nothing here has shown an abnormally high incidence of DCS in the area.

Not in the slightest.

>> If chamber rides were a thousand bucks a piece instead of all you want
>> for $36 a year, I'd bet there'd be a significant decrease in reported
>> incidents.
>
> Probably so, but let's not forget that denial is common relative to DCS
> issues. It is, in fact, the reason many fail to get treatment and end up
> with permanent damage.

The numbers are still no indication of an upward trend.

Double the numbers, still an infinitesimal incident rate.

Especially pertaining to the argument, when it's unknown what percentage
of these incidents were caused by poor training.

>> Was it really DCS, or indigestion?
>
> I've had both. There's no similarity at all.

Speaking from hindsight, and great experience.

I know of a specific incident where a woman was treated for a bent pinky,
received on 20 minute, 20 ft training dives.

4 interstate trips to a chamber.

Pinky bends.

>> Was it caused by deficient OW training, or hang over?
>
> There's a difference? Were you taught that alcohol made DCS more likely?

What's the Number 1 physiological characteristic of hangover?