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  #21  
Old 03-06-2007, 12:37 PM
Arno Wagner
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value

In comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.storage Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:
> On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 21:39:35 GMT, AZ Nomad
> <aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> wrote:


>>On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:24:44 -0700, Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>>On Sat, 03 Mar 2007 22:44:15 -0700, timeOday
>>><timeOday-UNSPAM@theknack.net> wrote:

>>
>>>>For comparison, Moore stated his "Law" at 100% per year in 1965,
>>>>and at 41% (doubling every other year) in 1975. It is often quoted at
>>>>doubling every 18 months, which would be 59% per year.

>>
>>>Moore didn't state a "law."
>>>He made an observation.
>>>And the observation was concerning chips, and had nothing to do with
>>>hard drives.

>>His observation has been valid for hard drives.


> Lead balls dropped in air acellerate at a certain rate.
> Do you, therefore, expect feathers dropped in air to acellerate at the
> same rate?
> But you *observed* the lead balls.
> Moore's observation had/has nothing to do with hard drives.


Good analogy.

Arno
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  #22  
Old 03-06-2007, 04:46 PM
AZ Nomad
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value (was: raw files are HUGE)

On Tue, 06 Mar 2007 09:07:18 -0700, Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:


>On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 21:39:35 GMT, AZ Nomad
><aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> wrote:


>>On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:24:44 -0700, Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>>On Sat, 03 Mar 2007 22:44:15 -0700, timeOday
>>><timeOday-UNSPAM@theknack.net> wrote:

>>
>>>>For comparison, Moore stated his "Law" at 100% per year in 1965,
>>>>and at 41% (doubling every other year) in 1975. It is often quoted at
>>>>doubling every 18 months, which would be 59% per year.

>>
>>>Moore didn't state a "law."
>>>He made an observation.
>>>And the observation was concerning chips, and had nothing to do with
>>>hard drives.

>>His observation has been valid for hard drives.


>Lead balls dropped in air acellerate at a certain rate.
>Do you, therefore, expect feathers dropped in air to acellerate at the
>same rate?

Huh?


>But you *observed* the lead balls.
>Moore's observation had/has nothing to do with hard drives.

non sequitur
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  #23  
Old 03-06-2007, 06:01 PM
Bill Funk
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value (was: raw files are HUGE)

On Tue, 06 Mar 2007 21:46:16 GMT, AZ Nomad
<aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> wrote:

>On Tue, 06 Mar 2007 09:07:18 -0700, Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:
>
>
>>On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 21:39:35 GMT, AZ Nomad
>><aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> wrote:

>
>>>On Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:24:44 -0700, Bill Funk <BigBill@there.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>On Sat, 03 Mar 2007 22:44:15 -0700, timeOday
>>>><timeOday-UNSPAM@theknack.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>>For comparison, Moore stated his "Law" at 100% per year in 1965,
>>>>>and at 41% (doubling every other year) in 1975. It is often quoted at
>>>>>doubling every 18 months, which would be 59% per year.
>>>
>>>>Moore didn't state a "law."
>>>>He made an observation.
>>>>And the observation was concerning chips, and had nothing to do with
>>>>hard drives.
>>>His observation has been valid for hard drives.

>
>>Lead balls dropped in air acellerate at a certain rate.
>>Do you, therefore, expect feathers dropped in air to acellerate at the
>>same rate?

>Huh?
>
>
>>But you *observed* the lead balls.
>>Moore's observation had/has nothing to do with hard drives.

>non sequitur


Not at all.
Moore's observation was about transistor counts on chips.
That's what he observed.
He made no observation about hard drives.
Chips=lead ball.
Hard drive=feathers.
Get it?

--
Hillary Clinton went to a civil
rights ceremony in Selma Sunday
and spoke to a local black Baptist
Church congregation. She mentioned
her husband at the top of her
speech. Whenever you face a tough
crowd you have to open with your
best joke.
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  #24  
Old 03-06-2007, 10:26 PM
John Turco
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value (was: raw files are HUGE)

timeOday wrote:
>
> Ken Lucke wrote:
>
> > Besides, what's the problem? Storage has never been cheaper - I just
> > picked up [yet another] Maxtor 300 GB Firewire/USB drive from Costco
> > for $149, including cables... that's 50 cents a gig. That makes 3
> > 250GB, 1 400GB, and 2 300 GB drives attached to my system.
> >

>
> I have surely appreciated the crazy explosion in flash memory capacity,
> but hard drives are not keeping pace. I was just looking for a drive
> today and was disappointed that hard drive prices haven't fallen more
> since I bought my last drive a few years ago.


<edited, for brevity>

Hello, timeOday:

Hard disks have been around far longer, than flash memory. Hence, it's
unrealistic to expect the same kinds of rapid price/performance gains,
from such mature technology.


Cordially,
John Turco <jtur@concentric.net>
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  #25  
Old 03-07-2007, 02:00 AM
Roger
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value (was: raw files are HUGE)

On 06 Mar 2007 22:26:03 EST, John Turco <jtur@concentric.net> wrote:

>timeOday wrote:
>>
>> Ken Lucke wrote:
>>
>> > Besides, what's the problem? Storage has never been cheaper - I just
>> > picked up [yet another] Maxtor 300 GB Firewire/USB drive from Costco
>> > for $149, including cables... that's 50 cents a gig. That makes 3


However using USB or firewire greately limits the speed. Now you can
install an external SATA 3 that will run as fast as the internal
drives.

>> > 250GB, 1 400GB, and 2 300 GB drives attached to my system.


I paid $10 USD less than that each for 4 500 Gig SATA 3 drives.
$139 X 4 = $556 for 2 Terabytes.

>> >

>>
>> I have surely appreciated the crazy explosion in flash memory capacity,


Flash memory hasn't come close to being able to match hard drives for
capacity. Yes, I can purchase a 1 Gig CF for about $20 to $30
compared to the $70 at discount I paid for them when first available.
Stores were selling them for $129 at the time.

But at any rate, when you compare the changes in HDs from the many
thousands of dollars for a 10 Meg Winchester drive of the 80's to the
1 Terabyte USB external drives for $400 give or take about $50 those
HDs certainly have kept pace with drive capacity for a reasonable
price about trippeling in the last year.

>> but hard drives are not keeping pace. I was just looking for a drive
>> today and was disappointed that hard drive prices haven't fallen more
>> since I bought my last drive a few years ago.


You've been going to the wrong stores. A few years ago HDs were
expensive and running in the 120 Gig range. I have one left that is
that small. I have over 6 terabytes...make that 7 between 5
computers.
Those 5 500 Gig SATA 3 drives with 16 meg caches cost about 1.5 times
the price of the 120 Gig drive I mentioned. You can now purchase 80 to
120 Gig drives for around $50 pt $60 with a bit of shopping. Actually
Best Buy had 250s for $89 a while back.

I just looked at New Egg and they have a 250 Gig SATA 3 WD (8 meg
cache)for $70, a 320 Seagate SATA 3 for $90 and a 500 Gig SATA 3 WD
for $139. The last two have 16 Meg caches.

BTW they have a 1 Terabyte external with 32 Meg Cache set up for both
USB2 and Firewire and fan cooled for $379 after rebate. ($9 shipping)

>
><edited, for brevity>
>
>Hello, timeOday:
>
>Hard disks have been around far longer, than flash memory. Hence, it's
>unrealistic to expect the same kinds of rapid price/performance gains,
>from such mature technology.


What we are seeing is still a rapid increase in capacity and prices
*still* coming down. One Terabyte external (with fan) for about the
same price as a 400 Gig just 6 months ago.

>
>
>Cordially,
> John Turco <jtur@concentric.net>

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com
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  #26  
Old 03-07-2007, 09:25 AM
chrisv
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value (was: raw files are HUGE)

John Turco wrote:

>Hard disks have been around far longer, than flash memory. Hence, it's
>unrealistic to expect the same kinds of rapid price/performance gains,
>from such mature technology.


Consider, also, that HD capacity increases are subject to big leaps
when a new technology is introduced, followed by a plateau until the
next leap. Flash-memory capacity, on the other hand, inexorably
increases according to Moore's Law.

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  #27  
Old 03-07-2007, 10:11 AM
Allen
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value

Roger wrote:
> On 06 Mar 2007 22:26:03 EST, John Turco <jtur@concentric.net> wrote:
>
>> timeOday wrote:
>>> Ken Lucke wrote:
>>>
>>>> Besides, what's the problem? Storage has never been cheaper - I just
>>>> picked up [yet another] Maxtor 300 GB Firewire/USB drive from Costco
>>>> for $149, including cables... that's 50 cents a gig. That makes 3

>
> However using USB or firewire greately limits the speed. Now you can
> install an external SATA 3 that will run as fast as the internal
> drives.
>
>>>> 250GB, 1 400GB, and 2 300 GB drives attached to my system.

>
> I paid $10 USD less than that each for 4 500 Gig SATA 3 drives.
> $139 X 4 = $556 for 2 Terabytes.
>
>>> I have surely appreciated the crazy explosion in flash memory capacity,

>
> Flash memory hasn't come close to being able to match hard drives for
> capacity. Yes, I can purchase a 1 Gig CF for about $20 to $30
> compared to the $70 at discount I paid for them when first available.
> Stores were selling them for $129 at the time.
>
> But at any rate, when you compare the changes in HDs from the many
> thousands of dollars for a 10 Meg Winchester drive of the 80's to the
> 1 Terabyte USB external drives for $400 give or take about $50 those
> HDs certainly have kept pace with drive capacity for a reasonable
> price about trippeling in the last year.
>
>>> but hard drives are not keeping pace. I was just looking for a drive
>>> today and was disappointed that hard drive prices haven't fallen more
>>> since I bought my last drive a few years ago.

>
> You've been going to the wrong stores. A few years ago HDs were
> expensive and running in the 120 Gig range. I have one left that is
> that small. I have over 6 terabytes...make that 7 between 5
> computers.
> Those 5 500 Gig SATA 3 drives with 16 meg caches cost about 1.5 times
> the price of the 120 Gig drive I mentioned. You can now purchase 80 to
> 120 Gig drives for around $50 pt $60 with a bit of shopping. Actually
> Best Buy had 250s for $89 a while back.
>
> I just looked at New Egg and they have a 250 Gig SATA 3 WD (8 meg
> cache)for $70, a 320 Seagate SATA 3 for $90 and a 500 Gig SATA 3 WD
> for $139. The last two have 16 Meg caches.
>
> BTW they have a 1 Terabyte external with 32 Meg Cache set up for both
> USB2 and Firewire and fan cooled for $379 after rebate. ($9 shipping)
>
>> <edited, for brevity>
>>
>> Hello, timeOday:
>>
>> Hard disks have been around far longer, than flash memory. Hence, it's
>> unrealistic to expect the same kinds of rapid price/performance gains,
>>from such mature technology.

>
> What we are seeing is still a rapid increase in capacity and prices
> *still* coming down. One Terabyte external (with fan) for about the
> same price as a 400 Gig just 6 months ago.
>
>>
>> Cordially,
>> John Turco <jtur@concentric.net>

> Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
> (N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
> www.rogerhalstead.com

I just read the Fry's Electronics ad in this morning's paper and saw
that they have 500Gb Maxtor SATA drive for $130, which further confirms
Roger's price. I remember buying many 30 MEGAbyte drives back in the
1980s for more than that; I had unwillingly become my company's PC guru
and installed those same drives. I also remember the 7.5 Mb packs (six
discs, 10 usable surfaces) to use on mainframe drives in the late 1960s,
at around $650 each. Please, don't anyone tell me that drive prices
are static.
Allen
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  #28  
Old 03-07-2007, 01:37 PM
Dave Martindale
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value

AZ Nomad <aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> writes:

>Pretty much, drive speeds have gone up in step with drive capacities.
>You get greater capacity either with more platters or a higher data density.
>Both translate to greater throughput given the same rotational speed.


No, drive speeds go up with about the square root of drive capacity.
Capacity increases with higher track density on a platter, more
platters, and higher data density along the track. Only the latter
increases data rate given the same rotational speed. The other two
factors only increase the total number of tracks.

Dave
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  #29  
Old 03-07-2007, 02:15 PM
AZ Nomad
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value

On Wed, 7 Mar 2007 18:37:35 +0000 (UTC), Dave Martindale <davem@cs.ubc.ca> wrote:


>AZ Nomad <aznomad.2@PremoveOBthisOX.COM> writes:


>>Pretty much, drive speeds have gone up in step with drive capacities.
>>You get greater capacity either with more platters or a higher data density.
>>Both translate to greater throughput given the same rotational speed.


>No, drive speeds go up with about the square root of drive capacity.
>Capacity increases with higher track density on a platter, more
>platters, and higher data density along the track. Only the latter


The number of platters hasn't increased over the years. The top capacity
drives have more platters than entry level drives, but the number of
platters used hasn't increased over the last twenty years.
You're not going to find a drive with eighty platters.



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  #30  
Old 03-07-2007, 03:12 PM
J. Clarke
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Disappointing hard drive value

Allen wrote:
> Roger wrote:
>> On 06 Mar 2007 22:26:03 EST, John Turco <jtur@concentric.net> wrote:
>>
>>> timeOday wrote:
>>>> Ken Lucke wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Besides, what's the problem? Storage has never been cheaper - I
>>>>> just picked up [yet another] Maxtor 300 GB Firewire/USB drive
>>>>> from Costco for $149, including cables... that's 50 cents a gig.
>>>>> That makes 3

>>
>> However using USB or firewire greately limits the speed. Now you can
>> install an external SATA 3 that will run as fast as the internal
>> drives.
>>
>>>>> 250GB, 1 400GB, and 2 300 GB drives attached to my system.

>>
>> I paid $10 USD less than that each for 4 500 Gig SATA 3 drives.
>> $139 X 4 = $556 for 2 Terabytes.
>>
>>>> I have surely appreciated the crazy explosion in flash memory
>>>> capacity,

>>
>> Flash memory hasn't come close to being able to match hard drives for
>> capacity. Yes, I can purchase a 1 Gig CF for about $20 to $30
>> compared to the $70 at discount I paid for them when first available.
>> Stores were selling them for $129 at the time.
>>
>> But at any rate, when you compare the changes in HDs from the many
>> thousands of dollars for a 10 Meg Winchester drive of the 80's to the
>> 1 Terabyte USB external drives for $400 give or take about $50 those
>> HDs certainly have kept pace with drive capacity for a reasonable
>> price about trippeling in the last year.
>>
>>>> but hard drives are not keeping pace. I was just looking for a
>>>> drive today and was disappointed that hard drive prices haven't
>>>> fallen more since I bought my last drive a few years ago.

>>
>> You've been going to the wrong stores. A few years ago HDs were
>> expensive and running in the 120 Gig range. I have one left that is
>> that small. I have over 6 terabytes...make that 7 between 5
>> computers.
>> Those 5 500 Gig SATA 3 drives with 16 meg caches cost about 1.5 times
>> the price of the 120 Gig drive I mentioned. You can now purchase 80
>> to 120 Gig drives for around $50 pt $60 with a bit of shopping.
>> Actually Best Buy had 250s for $89 a while back.
>>
>> I just looked at New Egg and they have a 250 Gig SATA 3 WD (8 meg
>> cache)for $70, a 320 Seagate SATA 3 for $90 and a 500 Gig SATA 3 WD
>> for $139. The last two have 16 Meg caches.
>>
>> BTW they have a 1 Terabyte external with 32 Meg Cache set up for both
>> USB2 and Firewire and fan cooled for $379 after rebate. ($9 shipping)
>>
>>> <edited, for brevity>
>>>
>>> Hello, timeOday:
>>>
>>> Hard disks have been around far longer, than flash memory. Hence,
>>> it's unrealistic to expect the same kinds of rapid
>>> price/performance gains, from such mature technology.

>>
>> What we are seeing is still a rapid increase in capacity and prices
>> *still* coming down. One Terabyte external (with fan) for about the
>> same price as a 400 Gig just 6 months ago.
>>
>>>
>>> Cordially,
>>> John Turco <jtur@concentric.net>

>> Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
>> (N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
>> www.rogerhalstead.com

> I just read the Fry's Electronics ad in this morning's paper and saw
> that they have 500Gb Maxtor SATA drive for $130, which further
> confirms Roger's price. I remember buying many 30 MEGAbyte drives
> back in the 1980s for more than that; I had unwillingly become my
> company's PC guru and installed those same drives. I also remember
> the 7.5 Mb packs (six discs, 10 usable surfaces) to use on mainframe
> drives in the late 1960s, at around $650 each. Please, don't anyone
> tell me that drive prices
> are static.


The pace of progress in the disk industry seems to have slowed. It used
to be that new drives came in around $400 or so and dropped out around
$40 or so. But the 500s are approaching the $100 mark and the 750s are
under $200 with no next generation yet on the market--the terabyte
drives are supposed to be out this month I understand at around
$400--they may very well hit the sub $100 range before the next
generation ships.
--
--
--John
to email, dial "usenet" and validate
(was jclarke at eye bee em dot net)


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