Hurricane Season 2004--please read

Sorry for the cross-post, but this is not only important for travelers, it's
also on-topic.

For people visiting the Caribbean this summer (my favorite time to go), talk
to your travel agent about insurance policies. The National Oceanographic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a busy hurricane season
this year.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp..._hurricanes_dc

Hurricane season is June 1 through November 30, with most gales forming
mid-July through November. While this is no reason not to go or to cancel
existing plans, a prudent option would be to hedge your plans with
insurance. There are several different policies available and all are a lot
cheaper than having to lose your $$ or your vacation.

Take it from someone who has been there--we went to Anguilla in September
1998 and were there only 2 days before being chased out by Hurricane
Georges. The local businesses were happy to refund the money for the unused
portion of our vacation, but the airlines were a harder sell for refunding
our unusable return tickets. Our one-way tickets back home cost $800 each
for same day departure and we were lucky to get them!

So talk to your travel agent now about trip interruption and trip
cancellation insurance. You'll be glad you did.

"Sam" <NoSpamSam@Spamex.com> wrote in message
news:N3xqc.76066$iF6.6383188@attbi_s02...
> -SPAM-
>
> I have been hearing bloated hurricain reports for the 20 years I have been
> traveling to the Carribean. Has anyone EVER heard of a GOOD report?
>
>

It only takes one storm, causing wind and rain and great big waves, to
happen on YOUR cruise week on YOUR itinerary to make you change your
attitude.
Chris

"fishman" <fish1956nospam@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:lVxqc.3217$Wg6.1783@bignews5.bellsouth.net...
>
> "Sam" <NoSpamSam@Spamex.com> wrote in message
> news:N3xqc.76066$iF6.6383188@attbi_s02...
> > -SPAM-
> >
> > I have been hearing bloated hurricain reports for the 20 years I have
been
> > traveling to the Carribean. Has anyone EVER heard of a GOOD report?
> >
> >
>
> It only takes one storm, causing wind and rain and great big waves, to
> happen on YOUR cruise week on YOUR itinerary to make you change your
> attitude.
> Chris

Ok, maybe I was a bit harsh, sorry. I have spent an entire two weeks in
Jamaica with not one day of sun(position of planets lined up causing high
waves) and been there when there was a hurricane looming a short distance
away while the entire island boarded up everything in sight. The reports of
predicted storms in the preseason always catches my attention so I seem to
get on the defensive when every report is overblown. I guess better to be
safe then sorry but I have learned to ignore them all and take my chances.

Respect.
Sam

On Tue, 18 May 2004 23:34:05 GMT, "Sam" <NoSpamSam@Spamex.com> wrote:

>I have been hearing bloated hurricain reports for the 20 years I have been
>traveling to the Carribean.

> Has anyone EVER heard of a GOOD report?

I got an "A" for Breasts 101 from the High School football team.

Oh, yeah, sure, look down your monitor to catch a peek.

Pervert.

"fishman" <fish1956nospam@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:lVxqc.3217$Wg6.1783@bignews5.bellsouth.net...
>
> "Sam" <NoSpamSam@Spamex.com> wrote in message
> news:N3xqc.76066$iF6.6383188@attbi_s02...
> > -SPAM-
> >
> > I have been hearing bloated hurricain reports for the 20 years I have
been
> > traveling to the Carribean. Has anyone EVER heard of a GOOD report?
> >
> >
>
> It only takes one storm, causing wind and rain and great big waves, to
> happen on YOUR cruise week on YOUR itinerary to make you change your
> attitude.
> Chris

Wind, rain, and great big waves. What an understatement! :)

"Charlie Hammond" <hammond@not@peek.ssr.hp.com> wrote in message
news:GvPqc.1891$Ur2.193@news.cpqcorp.net...
> O.K., opinions differ on whether trip insurance is good or worthless.
> But there is another question lurking here:
>
> Should hurricane season or predictions be a factor in your choice to
> purchase trip insurance?
>
> My answer is no. Even in the hight of a bad hurricane season, the chances
> that a particular location will have a hurricane in a particular 7-10
> day span remains very low.
>
> So I would say, if yoy like trip insurance, but it; if you don't, don't.
> But don't base your decision on hurricane predictions.
> --

Exactly MY point. After traveling for decades I have seen bad conditions
once or twice. Take it for what it is. If I insured each trip I would have
paid bigtime. Should anyone listen to the Evening News style of weather
reporting telling the worst possible condition and to alter their trip
because of it? NO. Has anyone ever canceled a well planned trip due to a
springtime hurricane season report? I don't think so. I live in the north
east of America where we hear of pending doom due to bloated snow reports
each season. Does it change my life style? NOT. Once again I ask has anyone
ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
and get on with your life.

Sam

"Sam" <NoSpamSam@spamex.com> wrote:

>
Once again I ask has anyone
>ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
>scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
>and get on with your life.
>
Yes - a couple of years ago the years that followed El Nino (IIRC - or
maybe it was El Nina or something) were predicted to be mild and they
were.


grandma Rosalie

"Sam" <NoSpamSam@spamex.com> wrote:

> Once again I ask has anyone
>ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
>scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
>and get on with your life.

Hurricanes go in cycles - it was pretty dull, with a few glaring years of
excitement (David, Hugo, etc.), from the mid-60's until the mid- 90's. If
you look at hurricane archives, you will see that there have been decades of
very active years and then relative calm. The late 20's and early 30's, the
late 40's and the early 60's were quite active; the 70's were pretty dull,
in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean. We are now in
an 'active' cycle so it will continue to be busy for a few years, even a
decade or more.

Also, do not forget that the population changes have to be considered - more
people near the coast, and larger percentages who have no major storm
experience. At the time of Andrew, they estimated that over 50% of those in
S. Florida had never been through a category 3 or higher storm; now, it's 12
years later and they again estimate that it's back up in the 50% range of
those who don't remember Andrew. It used to be the automatic question at any
public place, "How did you do?" which was universally understood....now,
you have to ask, 'Were you here during Andrew?' The number of people I meet
who were not here, and who take our horror stories with a grain of salt, as
if we were making this stuff up, is scary.

There has to be a happy medium between keeping people aware of the potential
dangers and boring them to inaction with the overhype. I love TV coverage of
storms because it's fun to watch the reporters fall over in the wind as they
try to show us that a 120 mph wind is strong; but it does get overdone.

Chris

On Wed, 19 May 2004 22:16:06 GMT, Dillon Pyron
<dmpyronINVALID@austin.rr.com> wrote:

>On Wed, 19 May 2004 21:53:18 GMT, Rosalie B.
><gmbeasley@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>>"Sam" <NoSpamSam@spamex.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>> Once again I ask has anyone
>>>ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
>>>scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
>>>and get on with your life.
>>>
>>Yes - a couple of years ago the years that followed El Nino (IIRC - or
>>maybe it was El Nina or something) were predicted to be mild and they
>>were.
>>
>>
>>grandma Rosalie
>
>There was an article in Ocean Navigator about 2 years ago about the
>various atmospheric oscillations. One of the comments was on how
>these affect the various hurricane/typhoon/cyclone seasons. I'll look
>it up and post appropriate sections.

From the March/April 2003 issue of Ocean Navigator:

"During an El Nino, the trade winds decrease in force over the
tropical Pacific Ocean, and hurricanes usually increase in frequency
and ferocity over the eastern Pacific and reduce in frequency and
ferocity over the tropical Atlantic."

"During La Nina the reverse occurs. Hurrican frequency and ferocity
increase over the tropical Atlantic, along with a decrease in
trade-wind velocity."

"The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) also appears to affect hurricane
activity over the tropical Atlantic. When the NAO is in its negative
phase, sea surface pressures are lower than normal over the central
subtropical area - this high-pressure area is often called the Bermuda
High. Sea-surface temperatures are higher than normal, encouraging
convection and hurricane formation in the easterly waves that
originate in summer over the deserts of west Africa, and move westward
with the trade winds."

We are currently in a La Nina phase of the ENSO and are in a negative
phase of the NAO. ENSO has a cycle time of 2 to 7 years, while the
NAO cycles about every 40 years.

So, it appears the the ENSO and NAO currently favor a strong hurricane
season in the Atlantic. The reader is to supply his/her own grain of
salt.
--
dillon

When I was a kid, I thought the angel's name was Hark
and the horse's name was Bob.

In article <pmPqc.78596$536.12962741@attbi_s03>,
"Sam" <NoSpamSam@spamex.com> wrote:

> Once again I ask has anyone
> ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching?

As a matter of fact, they DID predict lower activity for a few years of
the last decade -- and they were right. Their models are improving year
by year.

But I agree with part of what I snipped of yours: A direct hit is about
as traumatic in the islands as a major snow storm is to the USA
Northeast. Yeah, it's a PITA and destroys stuff, but it's a fact of life.

I'd say your best insurance is flexibility; being able to move to a
safer place, if appropriate, and possibly leaving a few days later.

Believe it or not, but Long Island gets hit by more storms than any
island group. (And if you include winter storms that can be worse.....)

--
Jere Lull
Xan-a-Deux ('73 Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD)
Xan's Pages: http://members.dca.net/jerelull/X-Main.html
Our BVI FAQs (290+ pics) http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/